Colchester vs Port Vale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)JobServe Community Stadium, Colchester, Essex
The Footlab model makes Colchester the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Port Vale. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colchester vs Port Vale?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Colchester (1,768) and Port Vale (1,786).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colchester have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Port Vale have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Colchester win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Port Vale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | Colchester 2-1 Port Vale | League Two |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Port Vale 1-1 Colchester | League Two |
| Mar 5, 2022 | Colchester 1-0 Port Vale | League Two |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Port Vale 3-0 Colchester | League Two |
| Mar 20, 2021 | Colchester 0-1 Port Vale | League Two |
| Dec 12, 2020 | Port Vale 1-1 Colchester | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Colchester vs Port Vale on Mar 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Colchester score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colchester sit 5th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Port Vale sit 20th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Colchester | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colchester vs Port Vale?
- The Footlab model makes Colchester the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Port Vale.
- Where and when is Colchester vs Port Vale played?
- Colchester vs Port Vale is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at JobServe Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.