Crewe vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Mornflake Stadium, Crewe, Cheshire
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Crewe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Crewe vs Bristol Rovers?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Crewe (1,780) and Bristol Rovers (1,754).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Crewe have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chester(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Crewe win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Bristol Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 2-1 Crewe | League Two |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Crewe 1-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Dec 12, 2023 | Crewe 2-4 Bristol Rovers | FA Cup |
| May 1, 2021 | Bristol Rovers 0-1 Crewe | League One |
| Jan 19, 2021 | Crewe 3-2 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Apr 9, 2012 | Crewe 3-0 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Crewe on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Crewe score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Crewe sit 2nd in League Two (6 points from 2 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Crewe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Crewe vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Crewe.
- Where and when is Crewe vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Crewe vs Bristol Rovers is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Mornflake Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.