Barnsley vs Stevenage: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Oakwell, Barnsley, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Stevenage the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Barnsley. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barnsley vs Stevenage?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Barnsley (1,786) and Stevenage (1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barnsley have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Stevenage have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oxford United(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Barnsley win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Stevenage win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Stevenage 1-0 Barnsley | League One |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Barnsley 3-1 Stevenage | League One |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Barnsley 0-1 Stevenage | League One |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Stevenage 3-0 Barnsley | League One |
| Apr 9, 2024 | Stevenage 2-1 Barnsley | League One |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Barnsley 2-1 Stevenage | League One |
Last archived meeting: Stevenage vs Barnsley on Apr 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barnsley score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Stevenage score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Stevenage | 0.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barnsley sit 21st in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Stevenage sit 19th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Stevenage | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barnsley vs Stevenage?
- The Footlab model makes Stevenage the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Barnsley.
- Where and when is Barnsley vs Stevenage played?
- Barnsley vs Stevenage is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Oakwell, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.