Barquereño vs Guarnizo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Castañar, San Vicente de la Barquera
The Footlab AI model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Barquereño. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guarnizo wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,768 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barquereño vs Guarnizo?
Guarnizo starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,808 vs 1,628).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barquereño vs Guarnizo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barquereño
Not enough data to predict the Barquereño lineup.
Guarnizo
Not enough data to predict the Guarnizo lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 08:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barquereño have 1 win, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Guarnizo have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Solares(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Selaya(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Bezana(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Torina(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bezana(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Torina(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Velarde(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sámano(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Barquereño win, 0 draws, 5 Guarnizo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barquereño 0-1 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Guarnizo 2-1 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 4, 2025 | Barquereño 5-3 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Guarnizo 3-0 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Jun 13, 2021 | Barquereño 1-4 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 9, 2021 | Guarnizo 3-0 Barquereño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Barquereño vs Guarnizo on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barquereño score 0.7 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Guarnizo score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barquereño | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Guarnizo | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barquereño sit 16th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (4 points from 6 matches) and Guarnizo sit 13th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Guarnizo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 5 |
| 16 | Barquereño | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Barquereño vs Guarnizo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barquereño vs Guarnizo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Barquereño.
- Where and when is Barquereño vs Guarnizo played?
- Barquereño vs Guarnizo is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Castañar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.