Barrow vs Carlisle: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)SO Legal Stadium, Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria
The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Barrow. The most likely score is 1-1. If Carlisle wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barrow vs Carlisle?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 161-point Elo edge (1,968 vs 1,807).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barrow vs Carlisle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barrow
4-3-3- 14Sebastian Blake Thompson
- 9A. Reid
- 19A. Allen
- 26R. Harper
- 5C. Edwards
- 27I. Marriott
- 25P. Kalambayi
- 2M. Oakley
- 36T. Latty-Fairweather
- 6K. Digie
- 1B. Winterbottom
Carlisle
4-3-3- 7D. Ajiboye
- 10R. Linney
- 9G. Kelly
- 6M. Azeez
- 4H. Bunker
- 30T. Jenks
- 15B. Nicholson
- 17L. Duru
- 5M. Feeney
- 18J. Ellis
- 1A. Desbois
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barrow have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Carlisle have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tamworth(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Wealdstone(home) | 2-1 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 3-0 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Southend(away) | 4-2 | National League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aldershot Town(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(home) | 0-0 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | AFC Fylde(away) | 2-0 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Woking(home) | 2-5 | National League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 0-1 | National League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Barrow win, 0 draws, 5 Carlisle wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | Barrow 0-1 Carlisle | League Two |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Carlisle 1-0 Barrow | League Two |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Barrow 0-1 Carlisle | League Two |
| Jan 31, 2023 | Carlisle 5-1 Barrow | League Two |
| Oct 18, 2022 | Barrow 2-0 Carlisle | EFL Trophy |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Barrow 1-2 Carlisle | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Barrow score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Carlisle score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Carlisle | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barrow sit 8th in National League (21 points from 13 matches) and Carlisle sit 14th (17 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Barrow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 21 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 17 |
A question about Barrow vs Carlisle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barrow vs Carlisle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Barrow.
- Where and when is Barrow vs Carlisle played?
- Barrow vs Carlisle is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at SO Legal Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.