Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Başakşehir the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Erzurumspor FK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Başakşehir (2,046) and Erzurumspor FK (1,951).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Başakşehir have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Erzurumspor FK have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Trabzonspor(away) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kocaelispor(home) | 2-0 | Süper Lig |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Inter Turku(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Inter Turku(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Puskas Academy(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 0-4 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Amed(away) | 0-3 | Süper Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Rizespor(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Başakşehir win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Erzurumspor FK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2021 | Erzurumspor FK 1-2 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| Jan 6, 2021 | Başakşehir 1-0 Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| Feb 9, 2019 | Başakşehir 1-1 Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| Sep 2, 2018 | Erzurumspor FK 0-1 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir on Apr 29, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Başakşehir score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Erzurumspor FK score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 1.6 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Başakşehir sit 10th in Süper Lig (3 points from 2 matches) and Erzurumspor FK sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Başakşehir | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK?
- The Footlab model makes Başakşehir the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Erzurumspor FK.
- Where and when is Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK played?
- Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK is played on December 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.