Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Kasımpaşa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe starts as the favourite with a 287-point Elo edge (2,208 vs 1,921).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kasımpaşa have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Fenerbahçe have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Trabzonspor(home) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samsunspor(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Konyaspor(home) | 4-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(away) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Kasımpaşa win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Fenerbahçe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2026 | Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Kasımpaşa 1-1 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Fenerbahçe 3-1 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Jan 9, 2025 | Kasımpaşa 0-3 Fenerbahçe | Türkiye Kupası |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Kasımpaşa 0-2 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Fenerbahçe 2-1 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa on Feb 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kasımpaşa score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fenerbahçe score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasımpaşa | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Fenerbahçe | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kasımpaşa sit 7th in Süper Lig (4 points from 2 matches) and Fenerbahçe sit 8th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Fenerbahçe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe?
- The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Kasımpaşa.
- Where and when is Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe played?
- Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe is played on December 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.