Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Başakşehir the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Gaziantep FK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK?
Başakşehir starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (2,046 vs 1,887).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Başakşehir have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Gaziantep FK have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Trabzonspor(away) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kocaelispor(home) | 2-0 | Süper Lig |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Inter Turku(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Inter Turku(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Puskas Academy(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Eyüpspor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 3, 2026 | IMT Novi Beograd(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | OFK Beograd(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Başakşehir(home) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Başakşehir win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Gaziantep FK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Gaziantep FK 1-2 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Başakşehir 5-1 Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Başakşehir 2-1 Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Gaziantep FK 3-0 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Gaziantep FK 0-2 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Başakşehir 2-0 Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Başakşehir score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Gaziantep FK score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 1.6 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Gaziantep FK | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Başakşehir sit 10th in Süper Lig (3 points from 2 matches) and Gaziantep FK sit 6th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Gaziantep FK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Başakşehir | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK?
- The Footlab model makes Başakşehir the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Gaziantep FK.
- Where and when is Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK played?
- Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK is played on October 18, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.