Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Kasımpaşa the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Samsunspor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
Samsunspor starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (2,037 vs 1,920).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kasımpaşa have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Samsunspor have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Trabzonspor(home) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samsunspor(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 2-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Göztepe(home) | 3-3 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kasımpaşa win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Samsunspor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kasımpaşa 3-0 Samsunspor | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Samsunspor 0-0 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Samsunspor 0-2 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Kasımpaşa 1-4 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Kasımpaşa 1-0 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kasımpaşa score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Samsunspor score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasımpaşa | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Samsunspor | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kasımpaşa sit 7th in Süper Lig (4 points from 2 matches) and Samsunspor sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Samsunspor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?
- The Footlab model makes Kasımpaşa the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Samsunspor.
- Where and when is Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor played?
- Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor is played on October 18, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.