Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Başakşehir the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Kasımpaşa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (2,046 vs 1,908).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Başakşehir have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Kasımpaşa have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kocaelispor(home) | 2-0 | Süper Lig |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Inter Turku(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Inter Turku(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Puskas Academy(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Trabzonspor(home) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samsunspor(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Kayserispor(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Başakşehir win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Kasımpaşa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Kasımpaşa 1-3 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| May 18, 2025 | Kasımpaşa 2-3 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Başakşehir 2-2 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| May 5, 2024 | Başakşehir 4-1 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Jan 9, 2024 | Kasımpaşa 0-3 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa on Apr 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Başakşehir score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kasımpaşa score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Kasımpaşa | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Başakşehir sit 2nd in Süper Lig (3 points from 1 matches) and Kasımpaşa sit 12th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Başakşehir | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Kasımpaşa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
- The Footlab model makes Başakşehir the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Kasımpaşa.
- Where and when is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa played?
- Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa is played on August 30, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.