Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun
The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Samsunspor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe starts as the favourite with a 181-point Elo edge (2,203 vs 2,022).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samsunspor have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Fenerbahçe have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Göztepe(home) | 3-3 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(away) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Samsunspor win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Fenerbahçe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Fenerbahçe 3-2 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Fenerbahçe 2-0 Samsunspor | Super Cup |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Samsunspor 0-0 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Fenerbahçe 0-0 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Samsunspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Fenerbahçe 1-1 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Samsunspor score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Fenerbahçe score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Fenerbahçe | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samsunspor sit 7th in Süper Lig (1 points from 1 matches) and Fenerbahçe sit 14th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Samsunspor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
- The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Samsunspor.
- Where and when is Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe played?
- Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe is played on August 30, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.