Beasain vs Real Sociedad III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estado Municipal de Loinaz, Beasain
The Footlab model makes Beasain the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Real Sociedad III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Beasain vs Real Sociedad III?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Beasain (1,879) and Real Sociedad III (1,794).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Beasain have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Real Sociedad III have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Touring(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Zaragoza II(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Náxara(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Ebro(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Añorga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Durango(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 5-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Zamudio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Beasain win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Real Sociedad III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2023 | Real Sociedad III 1-0 Beasain | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 3, 2022 | Beasain 1-1 Real Sociedad III | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 6, 2021 | Beasain 2-2 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Real Sociedad III 1-0 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 15, 2020 | Beasain 4-4 Real Sociedad III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 22, 2019 | Real Sociedad III 0-0 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad III vs Beasain on Apr 16, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Beasain score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad III score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beasain | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Real Sociedad III | 1.7 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Sociedad III | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 39 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Beasain vs Real Sociedad III?
- The Footlab model makes Beasain the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Real Sociedad III.
- Where and when is Beasain vs Real Sociedad III played?
- Beasain vs Real Sociedad III is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estado Municipal de Loinaz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.