Durango vs Leioa: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tabira, Durango
The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Durango. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leioa wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Durango vs Leioa?
Leioa starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,782 vs 1,678).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Durango vs Leioa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Durango
Not enough data to predict the Durango lineup.
Leioa
Not enough data to predict the Leioa lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Durango have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Leioa have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Beasain(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Amurrio Club(away) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Durango wins, 1 draw, 3 Leioa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Leioa 2-1 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Durango 0-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Leioa 1-3 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Durango 0-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Leioa 2-1 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Durango 2-1 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Leioa score 1.6 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Leioa | 1.6 | 2.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Durango sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (7 points from 6 matches) and Leioa sit 2nd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 12 |
| 11 | Durango | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Durango vs Leioa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Durango vs Leioa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leioa the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Durango.
- Where and when is Durango vs Leioa played?
- Durango vs Leioa is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tabira, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.