Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta)
The Footlab AI model makes San Ignacio the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 1-1. If San Ignacio wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Aretxabaleta (1,730) and San Ignacio (1,779).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
San Ignacio
Not enough data to predict the San Ignacio lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aretxabaleta have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; San Ignacio have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Aretxabaleta wins, 1 draw, 1 San Ignacio win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | San Ignacio 0-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 0-0 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 16, 2025 | San Ignacio 4-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 1-0 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: San Ignacio vs Aretxabaleta on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; San Ignacio score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| San Ignacio | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aretxabaleta sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (11 points from 6 matches) and San Ignacio sit 8th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
A question about Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio?
- The Footlab AI model makes San Ignacio the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio played?
- Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.