Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta)
The Footlab model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 37% for San Ignacio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Aretxabaleta (1,692) and San Ignacio (1,772).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aretxabaleta have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; San Ignacio have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Zamudio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Pasaia KE(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | La Calzada(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Aretxabaleta win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 San Ignacio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | San Ignacio 0-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 0-0 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 16, 2025 | San Ignacio 4-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 1-0 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: San Ignacio vs Aretxabaleta on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aretxabaleta score 2.0 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; San Ignacio score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
| San Ignacio | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aretxabaleta sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (45 points from 34 matches) and San Ignacio sit 7th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | San Ignacio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 37 | 27 | 55 |
| 10 | Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56 | 61 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio?
- The Footlab model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 37% for San Ignacio.
- Where and when is Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio played?
- Aretxabaleta vs San Ignacio is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.