Belgium vs France: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League2Kick-off on September 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Nagyerdei Stadion, Debrecen
The Footlab model makes Belgium the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for France. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belgium vs France?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Belgium (1,770) and France (1,862).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belgium have 9 wins, 6 draws and 0 defeats; France have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | New Zealand(away) | 5-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Egypt(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Croatia(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | England(home) | 4-6 | World Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Norway(away) | 4-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Iraq(home) | 3-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Belgium win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 France win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | Belgium 1-2 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2024 | France 2-0 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 1, 2024 | France 1-0 Belgium | Euro Championship |
| Oct 7, 2021 | Belgium 2-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 10, 2018 | France 1-0 Belgium | World Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Belgium score 3.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; France score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 3.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| France | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belgium vs France?
- The Footlab model makes Belgium the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for France.
- Where and when is Belgium vs France played?
- Belgium vs France is played on September 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Nagyerdei Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.