Denmark vs Wales: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Nature Energy Park, Odense
The Footlab model makes Denmark the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Wales. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Denmark vs Wales?
Denmark starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,716 vs 1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Denmark have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Wales have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ukraine(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Congo DR(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Czechia(away) | 1-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2026 | FYR Macedonia(home) | 4-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Scotland(away) | 2-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Romania(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Ghana(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(home) | 1-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 18, 2025 | FYR Macedonia(home) | 7-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Denmark win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Wales win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2021 | Wales 0-4 Denmark | Euro Championship |
| Nov 16, 2018 | Wales 1-2 Denmark | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Denmark 2-0 Wales | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Denmark score 2.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Wales score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | 2.2 | 1.0 | 8 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Wales | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Denmark vs Wales?
- The Footlab model makes Denmark the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Wales.
- Where and when is Denmark vs Wales played?
- Denmark vs Wales is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nature Energy Park, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.