Benfica vs GIL Vicente: prediction and stats
Taça da LigaQuarter-finalsKick-off on October 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for GIL Vicente. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,358 Elo points against 2,050 — a 308-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; GIL Vicente have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aarhus(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 7-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Benfica win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 GIL Vicente win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | GIL Vicente 1-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Benfica 2-1 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 28, 2025 | GIL Vicente 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Benfica 5-1 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Benfica 3-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 26, 2023 | GIL Vicente 2-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Benfica on Mar 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; GIL Vicente score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| GIL Vicente | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for GIL Vicente.
- Where and when is Benfica vs GIL Vicente played?
- Benfica vs GIL Vicente is played on October 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the Taça da Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.