Sporting CP vs Maritimo: prediction and stats
Taça da LigaQuarter-finalsKick-off on October 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 75%, against 17% for a draw and 8% for Maritimo. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,482 Elo points against 2,068, a 414-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sporting CP vs Maritimo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sporting CP
4-2-3-1- 97L. Suárez
- 10Geny Catamo
- 5Sergi Altimira
- 77I. Doumbia
- 17R. Zalazar
- 58Flávio Gonçalves
- 20M. Araújo
- 25Gonçalo Inácio
- 22Iván Fresneda
- 13G. Vagiannidis
- 1Rui Silva
Known absences
Z. DebastOut · Injured
Maritimo
4-2-3-1- 17Adrián Butzke
- 14Raphael Guzzo
- 18V. Danilović
- 6Rodrigo Andrade
- 10Martín Tejón
- 35B. Limbombe
- 2Igor Julião
- 23Paulo Henrique
- 44Romain Correia
- 4Rafael Fernandes
- 13Alfonso Pastor
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting CP have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Maritimo have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sporting CP wins, 1 draw, 1 Maritimo win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2023 | Sporting CP 2-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Maritimo 1-0 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 13, 2022 | Sporting CP 5-0 Maritimo | Taça da Liga |
| Feb 26, 2022 | Maritimo 1-1 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 24, 2021 | Sporting CP 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| May 19, 2021 | Sporting CP 5-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Maritimo on May 13, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting CP score 3.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Maritimo score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 3.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Maritimo | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 75%, against 17% for a draw and 8% for Maritimo.
- Where and when is Sporting CP vs Maritimo played?
- Sporting CP vs Maritimo is played on October 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Alvalade, in the Taça da Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.