Sporting CP vs Maritimo: prediction and stats
Taça da LigaQuarter-finalsKick-off on October 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Maritimo. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,394 Elo points against 1,995 — a 398-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting CP have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Maritimo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sporting CP win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Maritimo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2023 | Sporting CP 2-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Maritimo 1-0 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 13, 2022 | Sporting CP 5-0 Maritimo | Taça da Liga |
| Feb 26, 2022 | Maritimo 1-1 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 24, 2021 | Sporting CP 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| May 19, 2021 | Sporting CP 5-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Maritimo on May 13, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting CP score 2.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Maritimo score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 2.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Maritimo | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Maritimo.
- Where and when is Sporting CP vs Maritimo played?
- Sporting CP vs Maritimo is played on October 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Alvalade, in the Taça da Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.