Berceo vs La Calzada: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Isla, Logroño
The Footlab model makes Berceo the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for La Calzada. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Berceo vs La Calzada?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Berceo (1,671) and La Calzada (1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Berceo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; La Calzada have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Autol(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Yagüe(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | UD Logroñés II(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Pradejón(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Pradejón(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 3, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Berceo win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 La Calzada win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Berceo 1-1 La Calzada | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | La Calzada 3-2 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Berceo 2-3 La Calzada | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | La Calzada 0-0 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Feb 18, 2024 | La Calzada 1-1 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Berceo 0-2 La Calzada | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Berceo score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; La Calzada score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berceo | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| La Calzada | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Berceo sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (38 points from 34 matches) and La Calzada sit 12th (38 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | La Calzada | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 39 | 55 | 38 |
| 13 | Berceo | 34 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 42 | 50 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Berceo vs La Calzada?
- The Footlab model makes Berceo the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for La Calzada.
- Where and when is Berceo vs La Calzada played?
- Berceo vs La Calzada is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Isla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.