Berceo vs Alfaro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 10Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Isla, Logroño
The Footlab AI model makes Berceo the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Alfaro. The most likely score is 1-1. If Berceo wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 2,922 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Berceo vs Alfaro?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Berceo (1,703) and Alfaro (1,763).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Berceo vs Alfaro
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Berceo
Not enough data to predict the Berceo lineup.
Alfaro
Not enough data to predict the Alfaro lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 07:20 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Berceo have 8 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats; Alfaro have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | La Calzada(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | San Marcial(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cenicero(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Vianés(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Berceo win, 1 draw, 4 Alfaro wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | Alfaro 2-2 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Berceo 2-0 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 30, 2022 | Alfaro 1-0 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Berceo 0-4 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Feb 28, 2021 | Alfaro 2-0 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Dec 27, 2020 | Berceo 1-2 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Berceo score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Alfaro score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berceo | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Alfaro | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Berceo sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (15 points from 6 matches) and Alfaro sit 2nd (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berceo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
A question about Berceo vs Alfaro?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Berceo vs Alfaro?
- The Footlab AI model makes Berceo the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Alfaro.
- Where and when is Berceo vs Alfaro played?
- Berceo vs Alfaro is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Isla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.