BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Stadions Celtnieks, Daugavpils
The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for BFC Daugavpils. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS?
Rīgas FS is a heavy favourite: 1,955 Elo points against 1,645 — a 310-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BFC Daugavpils have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Rīgas FS have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Riga(home) | 3-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Jablonec(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 6-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Jablonec(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 BFC Daugavpils win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Rīgas FS win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | Rīgas FS 3-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| May 13, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Rīgas FS 4-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Rīgas FS 1-0 BFC Daugavpils | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Rīgas FS 5-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Jun 30, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 1-7 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Rīgas FS vs BFC Daugavpils on Jun 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rīgas FS score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Rīgas FS | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BFC Daugavpils sit 4th in Virsliga (37 points from 27 matches) and Rīgas FS sit 1st (66 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 65 | 20 | 66 |
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 31 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS?
- The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for BFC Daugavpils.
- Where and when is BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS played?
- BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS is played on September 13, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Stadions Celtnieks, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.