Super Nova vs Tukums: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Slokas Stadiona
The Footlab model makes Super Nova the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Tukums. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Super Nova vs Tukums?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Super Nova (1,554) and Tukums (1,507).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Super Nova have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Tukums have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Super Nova win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Tukums win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | Tukums 1-2 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| May 11, 2026 | Super Nova 1-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Tukums 1-2 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Tukums 2-1 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Super Nova 1-0 Tukums | Virsliga |
| May 16, 2025 | Super Nova 1-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Super Nova score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tukums score 1.1 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Tukums | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Super Nova sit 6th in Virsliga (28 points from 25 matches) and Tukums sit 9th (20 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Super Nova | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 28 |
| 9 | Tukums | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 40 | 54 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Super Nova vs Tukums?
- The Footlab model makes Super Nova the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Tukums.
- Where and when is Super Nova vs Tukums played?
- Super Nova vs Tukums is played on September 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Slokas Stadiona, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.