Riga vs Auda: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadions Skonto, Riga
The Footlab model makes Riga the favourite at 75%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Auda. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Riga vs Auda?
Riga starts as the favourite with a 254-point Elo edge (2,028 vs 1,774).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Riga have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Auda have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 3-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metta / LU(home) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Gyori ETO FC(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 4-1 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 3-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Riga win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Auda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2026 | Auda 0-2 Riga | Virsliga |
| May 12, 2026 | Riga 4-1 Auda | Virsliga |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Auda 1-2 Riga | Virsliga |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Riga 4-1 Auda | Super Cup |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Riga 1-2 Auda | Cup |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Riga 6-0 Auda | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Riga score 2.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Auda score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 2.4 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Auda | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Riga sit 2nd in Virsliga (65 points from 26 matches) and Auda sit 3rd (49 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Riga | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 79 | 24 | 65 |
| 3 | Auda | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 26 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Riga vs Auda?
- The Footlab model makes Riga the favourite at 75%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Auda.
- Where and when is Riga vs Auda played?
- Riga vs Auda is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadions Skonto, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.