Ogre United vs FK Liepaja: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
The Footlab model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Ogre United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ogre United vs FK Liepaja?
FK Liepaja starts as the favourite with a 228-point Elo edge (1,676 vs 1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ogre United have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; FK Liepaja have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Grobiņa(away) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Ogre United win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 FK Liepaja win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | FK Liepaja 4-0 Ogre United | Virsliga |
| May 12, 2026 | FK Liepaja 4-1 Ogre United | Virsliga |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Ogre United 0-1 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: FK Liepaja vs Ogre United on Jun 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ogre United score 1.1 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; FK Liepaja score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United | 1.1 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| FK Liepaja | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ogre United sit 10th in Virsliga (14 points from 26 matches) and FK Liepaja sit 5th (37 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 36 | 38 | 37 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 68 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ogre United vs FK Liepaja?
- The Footlab model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Ogre United.
- Where and when is Ogre United vs FK Liepaja played?
- Ogre United vs FK Liepaja is played on September 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.