BG Pathum United vs Adelaide United: prediction and stats
AFC Champions League TwoGroup Stage - 2Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 12:15 PM (UTC)BG Stadium, Pathum Thani
The Footlab AI model makes BG Pathum United the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1. If BG Pathum United wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BG Pathum United vs Adelaide United?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate BG Pathum United (1,780) and Adelaide United (1,804).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for BG Pathum United vs Adelaide United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
BG Pathum United
4-4-2- 7Raniel
- 18C. Songkrasin
- 6S. Yooyen
- 33R. Edwards
- 5K. Kaman
- 11P. Gustavsson
- 50E. Osmanović
- 48W. Choolthong
- 44M. Nikolic
- 16T. Yanagi
- 28S. Anuin
Adelaide United
4-3-3- 87Anselmo
- 35Brody Burkitt
- 99A. Riak
- 12J. Yull
- 55E. Alagich
- 10Juan Muñiz
- 14J. Barnett
- 3B. Vriends
- 4P. Kikianis
- 62F. Talladira
- 22J. Smits
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 08:22 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BG Pathum United have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Adelaide United have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bangkok United(away) | 2-3 | Thai League 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Home United(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rasi Salai United(home) | 3-2 | Thai League 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Pattani(away) | 0-0 | Thai League 1 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Wofoo Tai Po(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
BG Pathum United score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Adelaide United score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BG Pathum United | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Adelaide United | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BG Pathum United sit 3rd in AFC Champions League Two (1 point from 1 match) and Adelaide United sit 1st (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | BG Pathum United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
A question about BG Pathum United vs Adelaide United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BG Pathum United vs Adelaide United?
- The Footlab AI model makes BG Pathum United the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is BG Pathum United vs Adelaide United played?
- BG Pathum United vs Adelaide United is played on October 15, 2026 at 12:15 PM (UTC) at BG Stadium, in the AFC Champions League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.