Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Coopers Stadium, Adelaide
The Footlab model makes Adelaide United the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Brisbane Roar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 18, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar?
Adelaide United starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,806 vs 1,686).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Adelaide United have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Brisbane Roar have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
| May 15, 2026 | Auckland(home) | 0-3 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-4 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sydney Olympic(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 2-3 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Adelaide United win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Brisbane Roar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Brisbane Roar 2-3 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Adelaide United 0-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 1-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Adelaide United 1-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Brisbane Roar 2-3 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Adelaide United 1-1 Brisbane Roar | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Adelaide United score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Brisbane Roar score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
| Brisbane Roar | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Adelaide United sit 2nd in A-League (43 points from 26 matches) and Brisbane Roar sit 11th (26 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Adelaide United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 36 | 43 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 36 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar?
- The Footlab model makes Adelaide United the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Brisbane Roar.
- Where and when is Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar played?
- Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Coopers Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.