Bhayangkara FC vs Persebaya Surabaya: prediction and stats
Liga 1Regular Season - 1Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC)Stadion Wibawa Mukti, Cikarang
The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Bhayangkara FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bhayangkara FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Bhayangkara FC (1,758) and Persebaya Surabaya (1,850).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bhayangkara FC have 9 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; Persebaya Surabaya have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | PSBS Biak Numfor(home) | 7-0 | Liga 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Bali United(away) | 1-4 | Liga 1 |
| May 11, 2026 | Persepam Madura Utd(home) | 3-1 | Liga 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | PSM Makassar(away) | 1-2 | Liga 1 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Persib Bandung(home) | 2-4 | Liga 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 1-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Arema FC(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 2-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 29, 2026 | PSMS Medan(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persija(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bhayangkara FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Persebaya Surabaya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-2 Bhayangkara FC | Liga 1 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Bhayangkara FC 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Bhayangkara FC | Liga 1 |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Bhayangkara FC 1-2 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Jan 23, 2023 | Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 Bhayangkara FC | Liga 1 |
| Aug 7, 2022 | Bhayangkara FC 1-0 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
Last archived meeting: Persebaya Surabaya vs Bhayangkara FC on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bhayangkara FC score 2.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Persebaya Surabaya score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayangkara FC | 2.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
| Persebaya Surabaya | 2.1 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bhayangkara FC sit 5th in Liga 1 (53 points from 34 matches) and Persebaya Surabaya sit 4th (58 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Persebaya Surabaya | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 35 | 58 |
| 5 | Bhayangkara FC | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 53 | 45 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bhayangkara FC vs Persebaya Surabaya?
- The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Bhayangkara FC.
- Where and when is Bhayangkara FC vs Persebaya Surabaya played?
- Bhayangkara FC vs Persebaya Surabaya is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC) at Stadion Wibawa Mukti, in the Liga 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.