Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Infetti Ground, Birkirkara
The Footlab model makes Birkirkara the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Marsaxlokk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Birkirkara (1,526) and Marsaxlokk (1,571).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Birkirkara have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Marsaxlokk have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Gzira United(home) | 4-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Mosta(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Tarxien Rainbows(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Hibernians(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hibernians(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Balzan FC(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gzira United(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Birkirkara win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Marsaxlokk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Birkirkara 0-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Marsaxlokk 2-1 Birkirkara | Premier League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 0-0 Birkirkara | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Birkirkara 1-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Birkirkara 1-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Marsaxlokk 0-2 Birkirkara | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Birkirkara score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Marsaxlokk score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birkirkara | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Marsaxlokk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Birkirkara sit 2nd in Premier League (6 points from 2 matches) and Marsaxlokk sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Birkirkara | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Marsaxlokk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk?
- The Footlab model makes Birkirkara the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Marsaxlokk.
- Where and when is Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk played?
- Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Infetti Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.