Floriana vs Mosta: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Independence Ground, Floriana
The Footlab model makes Floriana the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Mosta. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Floriana vs Mosta?
Floriana starts as the favourite with a 290-point Elo edge (1,718 vs 1,427).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Floriana have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Mosta have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sliema Wanderers(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Birzebbuga(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Drita(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Drita(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(away) | 1-5 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Balzan FC(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Naxxar Lions(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Birkirkara(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Hibernians(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Floriana win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Mosta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Floriana 2-1 Mosta | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Mosta 0-1 Floriana | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Floriana 3-0 Mosta | Premier League |
| Mar 5, 2025 | Floriana 2-0 Mosta | FA Trophy |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Floriana 2-2 Mosta | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Floriana 1-0 Mosta | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Floriana score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mosta score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floriana | 1.5 | 1.1 | 8 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Mosta | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Floriana sit 3rd in Premier League (6 points from 2 matches) and Mosta sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Floriana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Mosta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Floriana vs Mosta?
- The Footlab model makes Floriana the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Mosta.
- Where and when is Floriana vs Mosta played?
- Floriana vs Mosta is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Independence Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.