Bjarg vs Notodden: prediction and stats
2. Division - Group 1Regular Season - 23Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Stavollen stadion, Fanahammaren
The Footlab model makes Bjarg the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Notodden. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bjarg vs Notodden?
Bjarg starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,884 vs 1,749).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bjarg have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Notodden have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fana(away) | 3-1 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pors Grenland(away) | 1-1 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sotra(home) | 1-3 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lysekloster(away) | 3-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Pors Grenland(home) | 0-1 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Åssiden IF(away) | 4-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brattvåg(home) | 0-3 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sandviken(home) | 1-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mjondalen(away) | 1-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sotra(home) | 1-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Bjarg win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Notodden win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Notodden 0-1 Bjarg | 2. Division - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Bjarg score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Notodden score 1.6 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bjarg | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Notodden | 1.6 | 0.8 | 8 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bjarg sit 7th in 2. Division - Group 1 (26 points from 16 matches) and Notodden sit 6th (27 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Notodden | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 27 |
| 7 | Bjarg | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bjarg vs Notodden?
- The Footlab model makes Bjarg the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Notodden.
- Where and when is Bjarg vs Notodden played?
- Bjarg vs Notodden is played on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Stavollen stadion, in the 2. Division - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.