BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Yerevan Football Academy, Yerevan
The Footlab model makes Ararat-Armenia the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for BKMA. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia?
Ararat-Armenia is a heavy favourite: 1,868 Elo points against 1,487 — a 381-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BKMA have 1 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats; Ararat-Armenia have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Noah(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ararat(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Shirak(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| May 26, 2026 | Ararat(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Universitatea Craiova(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Van(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Celje(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC Urartu(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 BKMA win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Ararat-Armenia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | BKMA 2-3 Ararat-Armenia | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Ararat-Armenia 2-1 BKMA | Premier League |
| Sep 29, 2025 | BKMA 2-2 Ararat-Armenia | Premier League |
| May 18, 2025 | Ararat-Armenia 4-0 BKMA | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | BKMA 2-4 Ararat-Armenia | Premier League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Ararat-Armenia 2-0 BKMA | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
BKMA score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ararat-Armenia score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKMA | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BKMA sit 10th in Premier League (1 points from 4 matches) and Ararat-Armenia sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | BKMA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia?
- The Footlab model makes Ararat-Armenia the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for BKMA.
- Where and when is BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia played?
- BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia is played on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Yerevan Football Academy, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.