Bologna vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Bologna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bologna vs AC Milan?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Bologna (2,049) and AC Milan (2,136).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bologna have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Lazio(home) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bologna win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 AC Milan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | Bologna 0-3 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | AC Milan 1-0 Bologna | Serie A |
| May 14, 2025 | AC Milan 0-1 Bologna | Coppa Italia |
| May 9, 2025 | AC Milan 3-1 Bologna | Serie A |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Bologna 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Jan 27, 2024 | AC Milan 2-2 Bologna | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Bologna score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bologna sit 14th in Serie A (0 points from 1 matches) and AC Milan sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Bologna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bologna vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Bologna.
- Where and when is Bologna vs AC Milan played?
- Bologna vs AC Milan is played on February 7, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.