Boston United vs Southend: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Jakemans Community Stadium, Boston, Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Southend the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Boston United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Boston United vs Southend?
Southend starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,794).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Boston United have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Southend have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Altrincham(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Birmingham City U21(home) | 2-3 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 2-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aldershot Town(home) | 0-1 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hednesford Town(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Altrincham(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aveley(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Boston United win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Southend win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Boston United 3-3 Southend | National League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Southend 1-1 Boston United | National League |
| Mar 25, 2025 | Boston United 3-0 Southend | National League |
| Aug 20, 2024 | Southend 2-0 Boston United | National League |
Last archived meeting: Boston United vs Southend on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Boston United score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Southend score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston United | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Southend | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Boston United sit 6th in National League (6 points from 3 matches) and Southend sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Boston United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Boston United vs Southend?
- The Footlab model makes Southend the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Boston United.
- Where and when is Boston United vs Southend played?
- Boston United vs Southend is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Jakemans Community Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.