Tamworth vs Barrow: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Lamb Ground, Tamworth, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Tamworth the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Barrow. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tamworth vs Barrow?
Tamworth starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,790 vs 1,625).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tamworth have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Barrow have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 1-4 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Newcastle United U21(home) | 5-3 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AFC Fylde(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boreham Wood(away) | 3-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AFC Telford United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Harrogate Town(away) | 2-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 0-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Morecambe(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Tamworth win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Barrow win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2025 | Tamworth 0-2 Barrow | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 2, 2013 | Barrow 2-0 Tamworth | National League |
| Oct 20, 2012 | Barrow 2-0 Tamworth | FA Cup |
| Sep 8, 2012 | Tamworth 1-3 Barrow | National League |
| Jan 21, 2012 | Tamworth 2-3 Barrow | National League |
| Aug 13, 2011 | Barrow 1-1 Tamworth | National League |
How many goals should we expect?
Tamworth score 2.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Barrow score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamworth | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Barrow | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tamworth sit 22nd in National League (1 points from 3 matches) and Barrow sit 20th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Barrow | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 22 | Tamworth | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tamworth vs Barrow?
- The Footlab model makes Tamworth the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Barrow.
- Where and when is Tamworth vs Barrow played?
- Tamworth vs Barrow is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Lamb Ground, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.