Bristol Rovers vs Colchester: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Memorial Stadium, Bristol, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Colchester. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol Rovers vs Colchester?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Bristol Rovers (1,754) and Colchester (1,763).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol Rovers have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Colchester have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Bristol Rovers win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Colchester win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 0-1 Colchester | League Two |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Colchester 1-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Nov 23, 2022 | Colchester 1-2 Bristol Rovers | EFL Trophy |
| Mar 15, 2022 | Bristol Rovers 1-0 Colchester | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2021 | Colchester 1-1 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Colchester on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Colchester score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Colchester | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol Rovers sit 10th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Colchester sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Colchester | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol Rovers vs Colchester?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Colchester.
- Where and when is Bristol Rovers vs Colchester played?
- Bristol Rovers vs Colchester is played on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Memorial Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.