Chesterfield vs Gillingham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Chesterfield starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,791 vs 1,648).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chesterfield have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Gillingham have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Chesterfield win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Gillingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2026 | Chesterfield 1-0 Gillingham | League Two |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Gillingham 4-1 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Chesterfield 1-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Gillingham 1-0 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Feb 14, 2017 | Gillingham 1-1 Chesterfield | League One |
| Sep 27, 2016 | Chesterfield 3-3 Gillingham | League One |
Last archived meeting: Chesterfield vs Gillingham on Feb 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chesterfield score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chesterfield sit 16th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Gillingham sit 21st (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Chesterfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
- The Footlab model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Chesterfield vs Gillingham played?
- Chesterfield vs Gillingham is played on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at SMH Group Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.