Exeter City vs Barnet: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)St James Park, Exeter, Devon
The Footlab model makes Barnet the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Exeter City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Exeter City vs Barnet?
Barnet starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,884 vs 1,766).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Exeter City have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Barnet have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Arsenal U21(home) | 5-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cambridge United(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Exeter City win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Barnet win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | Exeter City 5-3 Barnet | FA Cup |
| Dec 30, 2017 | Exeter City 2-1 Barnet | League Two |
| Sep 12, 2017 | Barnet 1-2 Exeter City | League Two |
| Apr 14, 2017 | Exeter City 2-1 Barnet | League Two |
| Oct 15, 2016 | Barnet 1-4 Exeter City | League Two |
| Mar 25, 2016 | Exeter City 1-1 Barnet | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Barnet score 2.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Barnet | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Exeter City sit 13th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Barnet sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Exeter City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Exeter City vs Barnet?
- The Footlab model makes Barnet the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Exeter City.
- Where and when is Exeter City vs Barnet played?
- Exeter City vs Barnet is played on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at St James Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.