Buchholz vs Sasel: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 18Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Otto-Koch-Kampfbahn, Buchholz in der Nordheide
The Footlab model makes Buchholz the favourite at 47%, against 20% for a draw and 34% for Sasel. The most likely score is 2-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Buchholz vs Sasel?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Buchholz (1,787) and Sasel (1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Buchholz have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Sasel have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Concordia(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tus Dassendorf(home) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sasel(away) | 4-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | ETSV Hamburg(away) | 2-6 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 12, 2026 | Teutonia Ottensen(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Harksheide(home) | 3-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Altona 93(away) | 2-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Buchholz(home) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Eimsbütteler TV(away) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 10, 2026 | HT16(home) | 4-6 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Buchholz win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Sasel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sasel 0-4 Buchholz | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Sasel 1-5 Buchholz | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Buchholz 7-2 Sasel | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 11, 2025 | Buchholz 2-1 Sasel | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Sasel 3-2 Buchholz | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Sasel 4-1 Buchholz | Oberliga - Hamburg |
How many goals should we expect?
Buchholz score 2.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sasel score 2.5 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 83% probability of over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buchholz | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Sasel | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Buchholz sit 12th in Oberliga - Hamburg (44 points from 34 matches) and Sasel sit 10th (50 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sasel | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 91 | 88 | 50 |
| 12 | Buchholz | 34 | 14 | 2 | 18 | 87 | 80 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Buchholz vs Sasel?
- The Footlab model makes Buchholz the favourite at 47%, against 20% for a draw and 34% for Sasel.
- Where and when is Buchholz vs Sasel played?
- Buchholz vs Sasel is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Otto-Koch-Kampfbahn, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 83% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.