Bugesera vs APR: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on October 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bugesera Stadium, Nyamata
The Footlab model makes APR the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Bugesera. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bugesera vs APR?
APR starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (1,875 vs 1,679).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bugesera have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; APR have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Gicumbi(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Marines(home) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Vipers(home) | 2-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri(away) | 3-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 24, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-5 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 27, 2026 | Al Merreikh(away) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Bugesera win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 APR win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Bugesera 2-2 APR | National Soccer League |
| Jan 3, 2026 | APR 2-1 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Bugesera 0-1 APR | National Soccer League |
| Nov 27, 2024 | APR 2-0 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Bugesera 0-0 APR | National Soccer League |
| Oct 10, 2023 | APR 1-1 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Bugesera score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; APR score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bugesera | 1.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| APR | 1.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bugesera sit 9th in National Soccer League (44 points from 34 matches) and APR sit 2nd (68 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | APR | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 50 | 28 | 68 |
| 9 | Bugesera | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 39 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bugesera vs APR?
- The Footlab model makes APR the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Bugesera.
- Where and when is Bugesera vs APR played?
- Bugesera vs APR is played on October 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bugesera Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.