Police vs Bugesera: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Kigali Pelé Stadium, Kigali
The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 39%, against 34% for a draw and 27% for Bugesera. The most likely score is 0-0. If Police wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Police vs Bugesera?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Police (1,704) and Bugesera (1,668).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Police vs Bugesera
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Bugesera
Not enough data to predict the Bugesera lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Police have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Bugesera have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sunrise(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 28, 2026 | Gasogi United(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Police win, 1 draw, 4 Bugesera wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Police 0-1 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Bugesera 1-0 Police | National Soccer League |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Bugesera 0-1 Police | National Soccer League |
| Dec 13, 2024 | Police 2-2 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Police 1-2 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Dec 5, 2023 | Bugesera 4-2 Police | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Police score 0.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bugesera score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Bugesera | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Police sit 12th in National Soccer League (3 points from 2 matches) and Bugesera sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Police | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
A question about Police vs Bugesera?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Police vs Bugesera?
- The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 39%, against 34% for a draw and 27% for Bugesera.
- Where and when is Police vs Bugesera played?
- Police vs Bugesera is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Kigali Pelé Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.