Burnley vs Bristol City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Turf Moor, Burnley
The Footlab model makes Burnley the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Bristol City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burnley vs Bristol City?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Burnley (1,910) and Bristol City (1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burnley have 0 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats; Bristol City have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torino(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Burnley win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Bristol City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | Burnley 1-0 Bristol City | Championship |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Bristol City 0-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Apr 29, 2023 | Bristol City 1-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Burnley 2-1 Bristol City | Championship |
| Jan 28, 2017 | Burnley 2-0 Bristol City | FA Cup |
| Dec 28, 2015 | Burnley 4-0 Bristol City | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Burnley vs Bristol City on Mar 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Burnley score 0.9 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol City score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Bristol City | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burnley sit 11th in Championship (1 points from 1 matches) and Bristol City sit 23rd (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Burnley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Bristol City?
- The Footlab model makes Burnley the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Bristol City.
- Where and when is Burnley vs Bristol City played?
- Burnley vs Bristol City is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Turf Moor, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.