Stoke City vs Charlton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Stoke City the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Charlton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stoke City vs Charlton?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Stoke City (1,782) and Charlton (1,832).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stoke City have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Charlton have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Derby(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Reading(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Stoke City win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Charlton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Charlton 1-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Stoke City 3-0 Charlton | Championship |
| Feb 8, 2020 | Stoke City 3-1 Charlton | Championship |
| Aug 10, 2019 | Charlton 3-1 Stoke City | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Charlton vs Stoke City on Feb 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stoke City score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Charlton score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Charlton | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stoke City sit 20th in Championship (0 points from 1 matches) and Charlton sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Charlton?
- The Footlab model makes Stoke City the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Charlton.
- Where and when is Stoke City vs Charlton played?
- Stoke City vs Charlton is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at bet365 Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.