Burnley vs Watford: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 34Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Turf Moor, Burnley
The Footlab AI model makes Burnley the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Watford. The most likely score is 1-1. If Burnley wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,853 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burnley vs Watford?
Burnley starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,928 vs 1,822).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Burnley vs Watford
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Burnley
4-2-3-1- 9J. Vardy
- 29J. Laurent
- 3Max Alleyne
- 19L. Ramazani
- 5R. Hatate
- 7J. Bruun Larsen
- 44Igor
- 2K. Walker
- 23Lucas Pires
- 18H. Ekdal
- 37G. Coudert
Watford
5-3-2- 9L. Kjerrumgaard
- 10M. Boadu
- 5H. Kyprianou
- 39E. Kayembe
- 17Iker Bravo
- 6M. Pollock
- 4K. Keben
- 15K. Diatta
- 16M. Bola
- 29Branimir Mlačić
- 1F. Ravaglia
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burnley have 1 win, 7 draws and 7 defeats; Watford have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford(away) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-5 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Burnley wins, 1 draw, 1 Watford win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford 0-4 Burnley | Championship |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Watford 1-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Burnley 2-1 Watford | Championship |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Burnley 1-1 Watford | Championship |
| Aug 12, 2022 | Watford 1-0 Burnley | Championship |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Watford 1-2 Burnley | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Burnley score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Watford score 0.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Watford | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burnley sit 22nd in Championship (8 points from 12 matches) and Watford sit 21st (11 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 8 |
A question about Burnley vs Watford?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Watford?
- The Footlab AI model makes Burnley the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Watford.
- Where and when is Burnley vs Watford played?
- Burnley vs Watford is played on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Turf Moor, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.