Bursaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Sütaş Stadyumu, Bursa
The Footlab model makes Bursaspor the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Fatih Karagümrük. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bursaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Bursaspor (1,901) and Fatih Karagümrük (1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bursaspor have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Fatih Karagümrük have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(away) | 1-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Iğdır FK(home) | 1-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bodrum FK(away) | 2-0 | 1. Lig |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Aliağa FAŞ(away) | 5-0 | 2. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bursaspor win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Fatih Karagümrük win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Bursaspor | 1. Lig |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Bursaspor | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 19, 2020 | Bursaspor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| Aug 17, 2019 | Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 Bursaspor | 1. Lig |
| Feb 5, 2015 | Bursaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük | Türkiye Kupası |
| Dec 17, 2014 | Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Bursaspor | Türkiye Kupası |
Last archived meeting: Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor on Aug 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bursaspor score 2.3 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor | 2.3 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bursaspor sit 5th in 1. Lig (6 points from 3 matches) and Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bursaspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bursaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
- The Footlab model makes Bursaspor the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Fatih Karagümrük.
- Where and when is Bursaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük played?
- Bursaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Sütaş Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.