Esenler Erokspor vs Ümraniyespor: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Esenler Erokspor the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Ümraniyespor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Esenler Erokspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Esenler Erokspor starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,906 vs 1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Esenler Erokspor have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Ümraniyespor have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sarıyer(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sivasspor(away) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| May 24, 2026 | Çorum FK(home) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 2, 2026 | Pendikspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Esenler Erokspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(away) | 1-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mardin 1969(home) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Keçiörengücü(home) | 1-4 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Esenler Erokspor win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Ümraniyespor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ümraniyespor 1-1 Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Esenler Erokspor 1-0 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Ümraniyespor 0-2 Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig |
| Apr 14, 2025 | Ümraniyespor 1-1 Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig |
| Dec 9, 2024 | Esenler Erokspor 0-1 Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
Last archived meeting: Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Esenler Erokspor score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ümraniyespor score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esenler Erokspor | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
| Ümraniyespor | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Esenler Erokspor sit 11th in 1. Lig (3 points from 3 matches) and Ümraniyespor sit 15th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Esenler Erokspor | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Ümraniyespor | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Esenler Erokspor vs Ümraniyespor?
- The Footlab model makes Esenler Erokspor the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Ümraniyespor.
- Where and when is Esenler Erokspor vs Ümraniyespor played?
- Esenler Erokspor vs Ümraniyespor is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Esenler Erokspor Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.