Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Pirelli Stadium, Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Burton Albion the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for AFC Wimbledon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Burton Albion (1,799) and AFC Wimbledon (1,732).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burton Albion have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; AFC Wimbledon have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stevenage(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackburn(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | QPR(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Burton Albion win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 AFC Wimbledon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Burton Albion 1-0 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| Oct 25, 2025 | AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Burton Albion | League One |
| Jan 22, 2022 | Burton Albion 1-1 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| Oct 2, 2021 | AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Burton Albion | League One |
| Mar 9, 2021 | AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Burton Albion | League One |
| Oct 24, 2020 | Burton Albion 1-1 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
Last archived meeting: Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Burton Albion score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Wimbledon score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burton Albion sit 7th in League One (4 points from 2 matches) and AFC Wimbledon sit 23rd (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Burton Albion | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
- The Footlab model makes Burton Albion the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for AFC Wimbledon.
- Where and when is Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon played?
- Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon is played on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Pirelli Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.