Bury Town vs Leiston: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - Southern CentralRegular Season - 6Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Atalian Servest Stadium, Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
The Footlab model makes Bury Town the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Leiston. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bury Town vs Leiston?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Bury Town (1,844) and Leiston (1,786).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bury Town have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Leiston have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leamington(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stratford Town(away) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stamford(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Halesowen Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AFC Sudbury(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stourbridge(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rushall Olympic(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bishop's Stortford(home) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Anstey Nomads(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Gorleston(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Bury Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Leiston win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Leiston 1-3 Bury Town | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Bury Town 1-1 Leiston | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 2, 2024 | Bury Town 1-0 Leiston | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Bury Town score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leiston score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury Town | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Leiston | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bury Town sit 2nd in Non League Premier - Southern Central (9 points from 3 matches) and Leiston sit 8th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bury Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Leiston | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bury Town vs Leiston?
- The Footlab model makes Bury Town the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Leiston.
- Where and when is Bury Town vs Leiston played?
- Bury Town vs Leiston is played on August 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Atalian Servest Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Southern Central.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 31, 2026StourbridgevsLeamington
- Aug 31, 2026Bishop's StortfordvsHitchin Town
- Aug 31, 2026Needham MarketvsPeterborough Sports
- Aug 31, 2026Redditch UnitedvsHalesowen Town
- Aug 31, 2026Rushall OlympicvsAlvechurch
- Aug 31, 2026Kettering TownvsStamford
- Aug 31, 2026Anstey NomadsvsBanbury United
- Aug 31, 2026Racing Club WarwickvsStratford Town