Bury vs Harrogate Town: prediction and stats
FA Cup4th Round QualifyingKick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Gigg Lane, Bury, Lancashire
The Footlab AI model makes Bury the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Harrogate Town. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bury vs Harrogate Town?
Bury starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,979 vs 1,861).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bury vs Harrogate Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bury
Not enough data to predict the Bury lineup.
Harrogate Town
4-3-3- 23B. Dolaghan
- 9S. McCoulsky
- 18J. Muldoon
- 3E. Bristow
- 14M. Williams
- 11W. McGowan
- 24L. Cass
- 4A. Baptiste
- 16S. Dreyer
- 26G. Horton
- 34L. Hutchinson
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 03:48 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bury have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Harrogate Town have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bromsgrove Sporting(home) | 2-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(home) | 4-3 | FA Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Workington(home) | 5-1 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Woking(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 3-0 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eastleigh(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Boreham Wood(away) | 1-4 | National League |
How many goals should we expect?
Bury score 2.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Harrogate Town score 2.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Harrogate Town | 2.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Bury vs Harrogate Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bury vs Harrogate Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bury the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Harrogate Town.
- Where and when is Bury vs Harrogate Town played?
- Bury vs Harrogate Town is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Gigg Lane, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.