Hartlepool vs Marine: prediction and stats
FA Cup4th Round QualifyingKick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Suit Direct Stadium, Hartlepool, County Durham
The Footlab AI model makes Marine the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Hartlepool. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marine wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hartlepool vs Marine?
Marine starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,899 vs 1,786).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Hartlepool vs Marine
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Hartlepool
4-3-3- 19C. Popov
- 10W. Harris
- 9J. Hugill
- 42Cole Deeming
- 4J. Hunter
- 14N. Sheron
- 6R. McNally
- 12Neo Eccleston
- 3C. John
- 15C. Penman
- 32N. Fisher
Marine
Not enough data to predict the Marine lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:41 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hartlepool have 3 wins, 0 draws and 12 defeats; Marine have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Newcastle United U21(home) | 1-2 | National League Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-2 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Tamworth(home) | 0-1 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Harrogate Town(home) | 0-1 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-4 | National League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Spalding United(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Warrington Town(home) | 2-0 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Radcliffe(home) | 3-2 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Darlington 1883(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
How many goals should we expect?
Hartlepool score 0.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Marine score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Marine | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Hartlepool vs Marine?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hartlepool vs Marine?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marine the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Hartlepool.
- Where and when is Hartlepool vs Marine played?
- Hartlepool vs Marine is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Suit Direct Stadium, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.