Búzios vs Paraty: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 6Kick-off on October 1, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Búzios the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Paraty. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Búzios vs Paraty?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Búzios (1,610) and Paraty (1,616).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Búzios have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Paraty have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(away) | 1-2 | Carioca C |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Barra Mansa(away) | 2-0 | Carioca C |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Barra Mansa(home) | 3-0 | Carioca C |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Barcelona RJ(away) | 7-0 | Carioca C |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(home) | 0-2 | Carioca C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | Goytacaz(away) | 2-3 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ(home) | 0-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Barra Mansa(away) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 7 de Abril(home) | 1-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Serra Macaense(away) | 2-2 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Búzios win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Paraty win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2025 | Paraty 5-0 Búzios | Carioca C |
How many goals should we expect?
Búzios score 1.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Paraty score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Búzios | 1.9 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Paraty | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Paraty | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Búzios vs Paraty?
- The Footlab model makes Búzios the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Paraty.
- Where and when is Búzios vs Paraty played?
- Búzios vs Paraty is played on October 1, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC), in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.